Bratislava City Report Q4 2022
Key market findings
Oxford Economics Experts have cut their 2022 GDP growth forecast for Slovakia by 0.2ppts to 1.3%, despite an upside growth surprise in Q3, to reflect the worsening external environment and persistent inflation. They now also expect the economy to stagnate in 2023, as the recovery from the recession in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 will likely be fragile.
Inflation dynamics remain a concern. Headline inflation rose to 14.9% in November from 14.2% in October, with energy and food prices contributing around two-thirds of the total. There are tentative signs of softening, particularly in services prices, as demand weakens. Additionally, the easing of global commodity prices in recent months should soon feed into lower domestic inflation. But Oxford Economics expects headline and core inflation will ease only gradually throughout 2023.